On your bike
The country is the bedrock for all automotive industry growth forecasts, and car production in China has been meteoric – as, for that matter, has been the production of nonwovens.
In 2010 China became the largest car and light vehicle producer in the world, outputting some 13.6 million units. Last year, production was up to 22.1 million.
There is a strong relationship between the growth of car ownership and GDP and household income, of course, just as there is with the penetration in the country of nonwoven-based absorbent hygiene products.
Twenty years ago, back in 1995, China’s annual GDP per capita was just US$1,500 and it has now rocketed to around $10,000 and is still growing. In 1985, meanwhile, the penetration of femcare products was around 30% and has consequently risen to above 90%. Diapers were virtually unheard of in China in 1995 but are now approaching 50% market penetration.
In parallel, Chinese spunmelt nonwovens production has climbed from virtually zero in 1995 to approaching two million tons in 2013.
At the same time, China is now taking sustainable issues very seriously, and specifically, is looking to curb pollution.
In the Chinese government’s current five-year plan (2011-2015), it committed to investing US$1.6 trillion on clean energy and manufacturing efficiency investments and at the same time, is also pursuing a goal of “harmonious urbanisation” and the shift to intelligent cities.
Most notably, during 2013, Beijing was the first city to impose a cap on new vehicle registrations to keep the overall number of vehicles down to 150 per thousand people. Three other major Chinese cities – Shanghai, Guangzhou and Guiyang – have already followed suit and introduced restrictions, and eight more will shortly follow.
Such actions are not likely to be limited to China either.
Speaking at EDANA’s recent Filtrex conference held in Berlin, Germany, Philip G. Gott, of leading US analyst IHS Automotive, suggested that Asian cities will not grow to the motorisation rates of the West.
“Congestion now costs cities billions each year,” he said. “It impedes the efficient movement of goods and manufacturing within them suffers as a result, and employers eventually move out. At the same time, it’s beneficial to keep people clustered in cities, so mass transportation infrastructure and alternatives to the car are essential for progress. Car ownership peaks as a function of population density and at ten thousand people per square kilometre it starts to go down.”
The growth of the new light vehicle market, Gott predicted, may soon level out at an annual 100 million units, which will mean 30 million less will be produced each year than has previously been forecasted going forward. And by 2035, this will mean there will be 260 million fewer light vehicles on the roads than there are today, as older cars reach the end of their life and are not replaced.
In seeking to reduce CO2 emissions through greater fuel economy, weight is currently preoccupying the car manufacturers and this is an area in which nonwovens – often in combination with other textile materials – can contribute significantly.
As a result of higher demand for increased comfort and improved safety, the use of textile materials has increased from 20 kg in a mid-size car in 2000 to 26 kg today. Many current developments include new uses for fabrics, and by 2020, it is predicted that the same sized car will contain 35 kg of textiles.
As will be evident at the next INDEX™ nonwovens show, which takes place from April 4th - 7th 2017, new applications for nonwovens for the automotive industry continue to be found. In the longer term, however, this market will perhaps not seem quite as attractive as it does today?
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